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An economics experiment

by Nicholas Barnard on August 31st, 2003

For some reason unbeknownst to me I’ve been exploring the thought experiment of what I would do if at the age of 68 (or thereabouts) I was diagnosed with a cancer which if left untreated would kill me within the next two years, and if I pursued treatment I would have a 30% chance of making it past two years and a 20% chance of living past five years.

I want to passionately and intellectually argue that I would not purse treatment and instead focus on wrapping my affairs up, making peace with that which I need to make peace with, and ensure that I have no regrets.

Although that seems the thoughts of a healthy twenty-something year old who is able to be overly dispassionately detached from life.

Logically foregoing treatment is following a path that will be least disruptive to society both in medical costs and allowing everyone around me the peace of mind of having properly wound down relationships.

Emotionally, I believe not accepting treatment is the more loving thing to do. Given the utter horrors suffered by those undergoing cancer treatment, not to mention the stress placed on their familial caregivers. I’ve seen this personally, its not some theoretical abstract.


To chose treatment in this situation that you have less than a 30% chance of living is cruel to yourself and give false hope to those around you. No one should be forced to go through the pains of fighting cancer or being misled into the future possibilities of future live with the ill person. One has no business of choosing treatments and creating false hope when you have less than a 30% chance of living.


I have no doubt that I am in the minority on this issue.

Perhaps this is an outgrowth of capitalist ideals, specifically the “dog eat dog” mentality and “the game ain’t over till its over.” (Anyone who’s played a friendly game thats turned nasty knows this isn’t true.) These mentalities are of possibly an outgrowth of capitalism, but I tend to feel that its more just a scared realization of people understanding how they’ve misplayed the ultimate economic game, that of what to do with your life.

Economics is the study of scarcity and choices imposed by that scarcity. Death is the realization that life is scarce and forces the evaluation of choices, but whereas with a checkup account of our daily schedule we receive multiple opportunities to evaluate our economic choices, with life we only have one final reckoning.

I am reminded of a quote by James Dean, “Dream as if you’ll live forever, live as if you’ll die today.”

Good advice, perhaps by following it we shall spare ourselves and our relatives the sufferings of cancer.

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